UK Flood Model 2018 Update

Our UK Flood Model offers a consistent view of risk across the entire risk transfer chain through incorporation of our market-leading 5m UK Flood Map. Portfolio analysis at building level takes advantage of these maps to offer competitive pricing and excellent differentiation between neighbouring properties.

The model offers a comprehensive view of flood risk by correlating river, surface water and coastal flood across the whole of the UK, as well a high event rate to capture attritional losses and a continuous rainfall simulation to account for antecedent conditions.

Realistic loss simulation is provided by the inclusion of extensive defence data and application of a sophisticated overtopping algorithm. Loss calculation is done at the lowest possible level: every location, event, flood type and coverage. Historic flood events are incorporated for validation and portfolio stress testing, including Storms Desmond, Eva and Frank 2015/2016 and June & July 2007.

UK Climate Change Flood Model

This model offers a unique opportunity to assess the future impact of climate change on portfolios and quantify potential impacts against present-day losses. Our pioneering model provides an indication of loss estimates in 2040 under a 2°C warming scenario and can be used in conjunction with our UK Flood Model for proactive decision-making and portfolio management.

Model access

The UK Flood Model and the UK Climate Change Flood Model can be accessed via portfolio analysis services provided by JBA, or our catastrophe modelling platform, JCalf. The models can also be accessed via ELEMENTS, Oasis and ModEx.

For more information on both our UK Flood Models, see our executive briefing.